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Should venture firms be playing in the secondary market? Geoff Yang of Redpoint certainly has an opinion, “What do venture capitalists know about being a momentum hedge fund?” http://bit.ly/hTGQy7
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Outcomes, as I believe, are basically binary in the venture business thus making these big valuation deals a lot less risky than they look on the surface. Moreover, who knows how these companies operate better than venture guys? They understand the monetization, operators and distribution data better than any professional investor in the marketplace. It's almost unfair.
I'd go as far as to say I think they have a distinct information advantage. Finding signal is never easy but if there's anyone can do it on the secondary market it's venture capitalist types and entrepreneurs.
Most LPs don't need this level of diversification from venture funds, they need the returns. I don't see how these late stage investments are going to make the returns that most VC funds require. So they are following a strategy they don't need to follow and that will likely not provide the returns they need. I think Geoff Yang hits the nail on the head here.
VC have an information advantage that standard PE and equity guys do not. They've watched these companies mature, know the people involved and understand what it take to be successful. Are they going to see a 100X return? Absolutely not. I point to Elevation's Facebook allocation as evidence this strategy can bear fruit. Now, the real questions we should be asking is: is the increased competition for deals on the secondary market artificially inflating valuations?
I agree that LPs want alpha (like almost any rational investor). However, if early-stage VC returns are lagging the overall PE/VC market, and your trying to show investors returns that aren't horrible, I might try to invest in the area of the market that is outperforming and play catch up. That would bring my alpha up from negative to closer to zero. And likely bring my beta compared to PE/VC investments closer to 1 (granted that's not a guarantee). Basically, I think this is a strategy to play some catch up in returns and potentially smooth out cash flows over the coming years. Otherwise, it seems like a long time to wait for not a lot of return given the full to over valuation of these late stage firms. cc @Brian Norgard
That said, if it is within your LPA then go for it. There are many firms in VC and PE space that specialize in secondary market, distressed debt, whatever the market there is a firm specializing in it to try to capitalize. This includes the broad market of deals where firms are structuring funds to participate in as many deals as possible as micro co-investors to get an "index" of VC returns, so I don't really but the excuse that firms are money managers and have capital to put to use. They have a commitment of capital not cash in hand, so for a VC to risk cash outside its expertise/agreed investments is really just a bet with 1% downside and 20% upside.
There are some larger VCs and PE complexes with the expertise to monitor public investments and forecast changes in market conditions, but by and large I see it as a risky play to squeeze as much carry as possible from an investment that is now public.
Investors have other firms to manage their public investments, so the most fair approach out side of some very unusual circumstances is distributing stock at the earliest possible date and allowing LPs to make their own decisions and contact their preferred public investment adviser for guidance if warranted.
November 2010: Kleiner hires Mary Meeker
December 2010: Kleiner invests in Twitter
February 2011: Kleiner invests in Facebook
So are they investing or marketing?
-Elevation
-KP
- VC's offer their investors access to these companies. LP's struggle to get into the best VC funds, still today, and now the best VC funds are offering them access into the winners of tomorrow. Do you think any LP will really look down on you for getting them a piece of facebook ? for getting some google pre ipo ?
- Deals are often structured. face value looks huge but guaranteed return is baked on. Financial logic is easy to defend. zynga at $7bn with 1.5 preference or similar. Company gets great headline number and everyone is happy
- Oligopoly. I will fund yours and you will fund mine, greylock, accel, etc usual crowd all doing each other's deals.
- Relationship with the acquirors and the future spinoffs. Remember the Sequoia / Intel conveyor belt
- yes KPCB makes me smile too. the big wallett solution to a strategic misstep. i still would not bet against them though.
http://freddesti...ket.html
Fwiw, I think this - like the recent mega-exchange mergers, like the pass-the-parcel wave of private equity "secondaries" (you buy my company, I'll buy yours) - is one more example of a fundamental flaw in our economy's current systemic asset allocation model which simply stated, concentrates too much capital with too few people. And if the returns were good, you could say so what? But they aren't really.
Study after study shows that smaller, more focused pools of capital are where the really interesting returns are to be found. But finding the gems in the coal is hard (and a problem not yet solved strangely enough) and there is no incentive for the folks allocating most of the world's long term capital to try that hard. Just give it to Blackstone, KKR, KP, Sequoia, NEA, etc. - they'll probably do a decent job and even if they don't I won't get fired (or even questioned) for chosing them. Interesting, the one segment of "alternative" investments where market diversity, innovation (ie new managers) and discipline has been a bit higher is the hedge fund world. I think this is a timing thing in that performance horizons are shorter than the career cycles of the LPs and so (some) creative destruction happens.
and it goes on if you want to read the rest