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Brian Norgard started a conversation 1 year ago
Should venture firms be playing in the secondary market? Geoff Yang of Redpoint certainly has an opinion, “What do venture capitalists know about being a momentum hedge fund?” http://bit.ly/hTGQy7
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    My cynical reaction is a lot of funds (VC and PE) have substantial dry powder they must put to work. There's a "use it or lose it" mentality at play here. For VC, the cost of launching a tech company has come down quite a bit and the market for large deals is shrinking. It's like watching a pond full of hungry alligators slowly evaporate on the Discovery channel. Things get irrational when the liquidity starts to dry up.
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    @Mike Puangmalai I imagine my stance will be a tad bit contrarian however I think this type of investment is a hyper efficient deployment of capital. In truth, I am really surprised more well funded firms are opting to dip their toes in this pool of risk.

    Outcomes, as I believe, are basically binary in the venture business thus making these big valuation deals a lot less risky than they look on the surface. Moreover, who knows how these companies operate better than venture guys? They understand the monetization, operators and distribution data better than any professional investor in the marketplace. It's almost unfair.

    I'd go as far as to say I think they have a distinct information advantage. Finding signal is never easy but if there's anyone can do it on the secondary market it's venture capitalist types and entrepreneurs.
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    I think that only venture firms with significant late-stage experience (bringing hyper-growth startups to IPO, for example) should really try this. But their experience at that stage is more relevant than anyone's. Public market investors have never dealt with that issue: It's only recently that there was liquidity for these cos.
    Dan Gould  •  Punt  •  Delete Comment  •  Mention Dan  •  +1
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    As long as their LPs are cool with it and it doesn't depart a ton from their investment thesis, then I don't see why not. Their job is to get returns, so if they think they can get returns that way, then go for it. There was an interesting point about acting on insider information that gets them into thornier territory, at least with regulators. With an active secondary market, what happens when John Doerr is on the board of Google and knows that they really want to buy twitter at all costs, or if Bing Gordon hears from his buddies back at EA that they are going to offer all the cash they have and all the stock they have to buy Zynga, and then Doerr and Gordon go on and buy shares in the secondary market. Well, these aren't regulated yet, so there's probably nothing legally keeping them from doing so, but will it draw the attention of the SEC? Will they hop in and try to regulate? If they regulate, which will basically turn it into a public market, then what happens to the secondary markets? Things that make you go hmmmm...
    Mike Su  •  Punt  •  Delete Comment  •  Mention Mike  •  +1
  • 0 votes
    It sounds like VC firms are trying to act more like big financial firms. These new strategies involve diversifying their holdings as much as possible. I would disagree with @Brian Norgard that this is hyper efficiency. Just because you're trying to correlate better with the overall market doesn't make that strategy inherently efficient.

    Most LPs don't need this level of diversification from venture funds, they need the returns. I don't see how these late stage investments are going to make the returns that most VC funds require. So they are following a strategy they don't need to follow and that will likely not provide the returns they need. I think Geoff Yang hits the nail on the head here.
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    @Matthew Waymost I don't see this investment methodology as a way to 'correlate better" with the market. Investing at the most foundational level is being able one's ability to extract signal from noise (in any vertical or asset class).

    VC have an information advantage that standard PE and equity guys do not. They've watched these companies mature, know the people involved and understand what it take to be successful. Are they going to see a 100X return? Absolutely not. I point to Elevation's Facebook allocation as evidence this strategy can bear fruit. Now, the real questions we should be asking is: is the increased competition for deals on the secondary market artificially inflating valuations?
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    LPs want alpha, not beta. So the market correlation thesis is probably misleading. Early-stage VC returns continue to suck. Good to see that some folks are realizing they are money managers. It's disheartening to see some VCs wasting away a perfectly good $100M fund on local early-stage, reserving 2/3s of capital, realizing all they have is duds and then throwing good money after bad in desperate follow-ins. There are way too many players in the early stage game who don't know what they're doing.
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    @Max Niederhofer You said, "Good to see that some folks are realizing they are money managers." +1
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    @Max Niederhofer Do you see this new capital migration as healthy for pre IPO companies?
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    Quoting @Max Niederhofer : "LPs want alpha, not beta. So the market correlation thesis is probably misleading. Early-stage VC returns continue to suck."

    I agree that LPs want alpha (like almost any rational investor). However, if early-stage VC returns are lagging the overall PE/VC market, and your trying to show investors returns that aren't horrible, I might try to invest in the area of the market that is outperforming and play catch up. That would bring my alpha up from negative to closer to zero. And likely bring my beta compared to PE/VC investments closer to 1 (granted that's not a guarantee). Basically, I think this is a strategy to play some catch up in returns and potentially smooth out cash flows over the coming years. Otherwise, it seems like a long time to wait for not a lot of return given the full to over valuation of these late stage firms. cc @Brian Norgard
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    @Brian Norgard I'd prefer companies going public earlier, but I think most boards look at the regulations/liquidity trade-off and realize they don't need to.
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    In my opinion, LPAs are written for a specific objective and investors, specifically institutional investors, have a certain allocation that they have attributed to VC or PE and they expect that those firms follow the investment objectives of the LPA. In the event that the VC makes money great, if not, it would open them up to potnetial liability from an LP that might be less than thrilled that their VC allocation was spent on something late stage increasing their exposure to different sector.

    That said, if it is within your LPA then go for it. There are many firms in VC and PE space that specialize in secondary market, distressed debt, whatever the market there is a firm specializing in it to try to capitalize. This includes the broad market of deals where firms are structuring funds to participate in as many deals as possible as micro co-investors to get an "index" of VC returns, so I don't really but the excuse that firms are money managers and have capital to put to use. They have a commitment of capital not cash in hand, so for a VC to risk cash outside its expertise/agreed investments is really just a bet with 1% downside and 20% upside.
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    Related side note: Does anyone else find it concerning when VCs do not either sell or distribute stock after an IPO lock up period expires?

    There are some larger VCs and PE complexes with the expertise to monitor public investments and forecast changes in market conditions, but by and large I see it as a risky play to squeeze as much carry as possible from an investment that is now public.

    Investors have other firms to manage their public investments, so the most fair approach out side of some very unusual circumstances is distributing stock at the earliest possible date and allowing LPs to make their own decisions and contact their preferred public investment adviser for guidance if warranted.
  • 0 votes
    @Steve Berg Do VCs have to approve these types of later stage deals with their LPs? Curious what the case is once capital has been committed.
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    It is case by case and a lot depends on how much power the LPs have in general. A lot of the older complexes tend to be a little more loose and have LPs (and LPAs) that allow for more. To contrast that, funds with heavy influence from members of the ILPA (Institutional Limited Partner Association) will likely have a limited partner advisory committee and need to approve all investments as well as navigate some complex side letters excluding certain investments or strategies. I think most fall somewhere in between this range but it just shows there are a variety of firms operating very differently within the niche PE and VC industries.
  • 0 votes
    The secondary market versus primary market is an interesting debate since it is opportunistic and may generate good returns or maybe high risk for limited control compared to many direct VC investments which could be scary to some LPs. It is probably in a gray area since most LPAs would be written to allow for one VC to buyout another VC within the same investment (ie a co-investor needing liquidity) to protect against an outside firm stepping in. Also, so tough to define a "VC" round, to narrow it down to a certain set of rules since the govt. can't define it any better than "if the call themselves VC, they must be VC" or "you know one when you see it" is a challenge in itself. Maybe by that definition one might have to assume "if the fund is buying in secondary market; it must not be restricted from doing so" but that still leaves the debate of "could" vs. "should".
  • 0 votes
    @Steve Berg I really appreciate you sharing all this information. The "could" versus "should" debate will be ongoing until we see a few folks get soild returns or not. My sense is the early entrants into this investment class will all come out ahead--it's the next tier who will feel the pain. So goes investing...
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    All of the mechanical points made above stand, but the main reason many VCs are investing in secondary market is for marketing reasons -- they need to be seen being active in companies that matter. Read it is as indicative of fund-raising plans more than being about direct return expectations.
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    @Paul Kedrosky It's all about the optics eh? Gosh, I thought they were capitalists at heart.
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    @Brian Norgard October 2010: Kleiner looking to raise $1+ billion http://finance.f...-billion

    November 2010: Kleiner hires Mary Meeker

    December 2010: Kleiner invests in Twitter

    February 2011: Kleiner invests in Facebook

    So are they investing or marketing?
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    @Mike Puangmalai Investing and marketing incredibly well!
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    Here is what I think the drivers are:
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    @Fred Destin We're watching...
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    @Brian Norgard Industry Ventures just received a well deserved plug in peHub for their efforts in this space including the closing of a nice big new fund. I wonder if the opportunities for new players will continue to be there if there are already big firms in place and the economy turns around. It will be interesting to see if the secondary market continues to grow or dries up as the liquidity issues of the great recession subside.
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    While we're waiting for @Fred Nikgohar Destin - What's the data on this phenomenon? It appears to be restricted to a few mega-funds.
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    @Simon Bayly Off the top of my head I can think of the following firms:

    -Elevation
    -KP
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    ... have openly stated they're playing in this market.
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    Check Industry's web-page, it doesn't get more clear than this: http://industryventures.com
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    - Mutual halo effect, both for the companies (it's cooler to get KPCB then some unknow hedgie or fidelity, and VC's get the "plate on the wall" to use @chris dixon 's analogy). Call it branding congruence. facebook can still pretend to be a cool startup coz it gets its money from cool people who understand what it's doing.
    - VC's offer their investors access to these companies. LP's struggle to get into the best VC funds, still today, and now the best VC funds are offering them access into the winners of tomorrow. Do you think any LP will really look down on you for getting them a piece of facebook ? for getting some google pre ipo ?
    - Deals are often structured. face value looks huge but guaranteed return is baked on. Financial logic is easy to defend. zynga at $7bn with 1.5 preference or similar. Company gets great headline number and everyone is happy
    - Oligopoly. I will fund yours and you will fund mine, greylock, accel, etc usual crowd all doing each other's deals.
    - Relationship with the acquirors and the future spinoffs. Remember the Sequoia / Intel conveyor belt
    - yes KPCB makes me smile too. the big wallett solution to a strategic misstep. i still would not bet against them though.
  • 0 votes
    @Fred Destin Will we ever see a day where LPs will buy direct or is this missing the entire point of the investing value chain?
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    @Fred Destin Doesn't a semi liquid exchange effectively commoditize the VC's position in the longer term?
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    @Max Niederhofer i will disagree on one thing -- the investor (LP) is supposed to do the allocation, so if you sold early stage that's the exposure you're supposed to get. think about the GP bias here: the strategy i sold is tough, it's much easier for me to get middling returns going large on late stage deals. Now I DO agree with you about shit early stage and being money managers. Just hoping I am not additive to the shitty trend :-)
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    @Fred Destin Nope. "Just hoping I am not additive to the shitty trend."
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    @Brian Norgard LP's do buy direct. But assume EVERYONE wants a piece of facebook and think from the company's standpoint, with the valuation being huge and hence irrelevant, who will be best for them as incoming investor ? That's the power of Mary Meeker, she does an awfully good slideset and probably knows a thing or two about taking a company public. And it's such a good story: VC's are so in awe of my company than rather than fund say namesake to disrupt twitter/fb whatever they would rather declare game over and put the money they allocated to fund social media into my business. Everyone wins right ? Compare and contrast with the shitstorm hitting the Wellcome Trust for its investment in zynga, no one would have batted an eyelid if it was KP coming in.
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    Sorry I meant Wellcome Trust and WONGA not zynga (talk about mindshare !!)
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    I think @Fred Destin has succinctly covered all the bases. To add one thing - secondary specific PE funds are not new, but sell a different value proposition to 'vanilla' VCs.
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    Incidentally The Founders Club http://Founders-Club.com offers an innovative way for founders to spread their risk prior to gaining liquidity.
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    it's the post i had in my mind since last week so this discussion triggered it thanks
    http://freddesti...ket.html
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    Yet another sign of a bubble. Sadly.
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    @Vivek Wadhwa It's different this time. Right?
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    Yes, of course. This time they know what they are doing.
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    One thing I have seen consistently in Silicon Valley: everyone jumps on the same bandwagon and is indignant when you question whey they are doing this. I have been astonished at how easy it is to provoke debate on virtually topic that I have written about.
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    @Vivek Wadhwa Of course, the economics have changed. The promise of the Internet has finally arrived.
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    @Vivek Wadhwa I think you're pointing to the fact how aspirational the 'herd' is ... no one wants to be left out of the party. It's much like Hollywood in that respect.
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    @Vivek Wadhwa No one wants to be seen as the outsider unless it's extremely profitable. But that's life. And society in general. Not just SV.
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    @Vivek Wadhwa glad to see you on namesake.... agree on your comment "why they are doing this"..... too much cash influx and desire to not be left out at any cost seems to be one of the root causes of the current angel bubble.
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  • 0 votes
    I love this discussion - lots of great points! @Paul Kedrosky got it mostly right - firms love the marketing juice that comes with being associated with the big plays in the space. You can't tell me that KP isn't excited that most of the press around the recent Twitter rumors identify "Kleiner Perkins" as the investor behind Twitter! It's got to be burning Union Square, Spark and Benchmark that they totally got swooped in the credit department even though those guys put money to work when it wasn't obvious. Don't underestimate the power of the virtuous circle of being associated with big deals as a marketing tool to entrepreneurs (most of the conversation seemed to be focused on marketing to LPs for funds) - if you have two term sheets, one from the guy that was involved with Zynga, Facebook, Google, Twitter, Groupon, Amazon and one from a guy who wasn't involved with those companies, I can tell you that I've seen it impact decision making. Marketing aside though, I think some of these momentum hedge fund style bets will generate great returns. Andreesen Horowitz has been very active on this front - Skype and others - I think they will return their fund with these momentum bets which gives them a lot of freedom to make bets on super alpha deals.
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    I am reprinting a comment that was made on my blog by sean park (http://parkparadigm.com) because it gives a different macro perspective on the whole thing:

    Fwiw, I think this - like the recent mega-exchange mergers, like the pass-the-parcel wave of private equity "secondaries" (you buy my company, I'll buy yours) - is one more example of a fundamental flaw in our economy's current systemic asset allocation model which simply stated, concentrates too much capital with too few people. And if the returns were good, you could say so what? But they aren't really.

    Study after study shows that smaller, more focused pools of capital are where the really interesting returns are to be found. But finding the gems in the coal is hard (and a problem not yet solved strangely enough) and there is no incentive for the folks allocating most of the world's long term capital to try that hard. Just give it to Blackstone, KKR, KP, Sequoia, NEA, etc. - they'll probably do a decent job and even if they don't I won't get fired (or even questioned) for chosing them. Interesting, the one segment of "alternative" investments where market diversity, innovation (ie new managers) and discipline has been a bit higher is the hedge fund world. I think this is a timing thing in that performance horizons are shorter than the career cycles of the LPs and so (some) creative destruction happens.
    and it goes on if you want to read the rest
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